BALTIMORE, MARYLAND — Fall begins officially next week, and a new NOAA Temperature Outlook covering September 23 through September 27 has the Northeast on the edge of cooler weather, according to Just In Weather. But some of the data suggests if the region gets locked in with more rain, there may be a few days with highs in the 60s around Baltimore. Meanwhile, a heat ridge of mid-summer intensity, described as the strongest on the planet right now, remains locked in place and continues baking the central US, keeping cities like Dallas, Houston and St. Louis stuck in sweltering warmth even as the calendar turns toward fall.
Baltimore Sits Right on the Edge Between Cool and Still Warm
If you’re in Baltimore, you’re positioned almost exactly on the dividing line in this outlook, shaded in a transitional tan color between the still hot zone to the west and the genuinely cool zone to the north and east. Forecasters say if the region gets locked into a wetter pattern over these five days, Baltimore could see a few days with highs only in the 60s, a real taste of fall rather than the lingering summer warmth the Mid-Atlantic has dealt with recently.
New York and Toronto Trend Toward a Genuine Cool Down
Farther north and east, the outlook shows a clearer signal toward cooler conditions, with New York, Toronto and Ottawa all falling within the blue-shaded cool zone on the map. If you’re anywhere across this stretch of the Northeast and southern Canada, this five-day window looks like it could deliver genuinely autumn-like conditions, lining up well with fall’s official start next week rather than fighting against it.
Quebec and the Canadian Maritimes See the Coolest Signal of All
At the very top of the outlook, Quebec shows the deepest gray shading on the entire map, representing the coolest departure from normal anywhere in the outlined region. If you’re in this part of Canada, expect this five-day stretch to feel firmly like fall has arrived, well ahead of what’s happening just a few hundred miles south and west.
Minneapolis, Chicago and St. Louis Stay Locked Under Still Hot Conditions
On the opposite side of the map, a huge stretch of the central US remains firmly in the still hot category, colored in deep orange and red. Minneapolis, Chicago, St. Louis and Nashville all fall within this zone, meaning residents across this corridor should not expect the same relief heading to the Northeast, with warmth persisting right through this five-day window rather than easing as fall officially begins.
Dallas, Houston and New Orleans Face the Most Intense Heat on the Map
The deepest, most intense shading on the entire outlook sits over Texas and the Gulf Coast, covering Dallas, Houston and New Orleans. This region sits closest to the core of the record-strength ridge forecasters describe as being of mid-summer intensity, meaning if you’re anywhere in this corridor, don’t expect fall to show up on schedule; this stretch of the country is set to keep sweating it out well past the calendar’s official turn toward autumn.
Atlanta and Tampa Sit in the Broader Warm Zone Farther South
Across the Southeast, Atlanta and Tampa both fall within the broader orange still hot shading as well, extending the ridge’s influence down through Georgia and Florida. If you’re in either of these cities, this outlook suggests continued warmth through the period, with the cooler air staying well to your north and offering no real relief for the Southeast during this particular window.
What Makes This Ridge So Unusual for Late September
Forecasters emphasized just how remarkable this setup is, describing the ridge parked over the central US as carrying mid-summer intensity and currently standing as the strongest ridge on the planet. That kind of strength locked in place this late in September is unusual, and it’s the direct reason cities like Dallas, Houston and St. Louis are staying baked in heat even as places just a few states away, like Baltimore, New York and Toronto, trend toward genuinely cooler, more autumn-appropriate conditions.
What Residents on Either Side of the Divide Should Expect
If you live anywhere from the central Plains through the Deep South and Gulf Coast, plan for this outlook’s still hot label to hold true through September 27, with little sign of the ridge budging during this window. If you’re in the Northeast, particularly around New York or farther north into Canada, this stretch looks like a legitimate early fall preview, while Baltimore and similar transitional cities should watch closely, since a wetter pattern locking in could be the difference between a mild week and one that still feels like summer refuses to let go.
