ARDMORE, OKLAHOMA — It is finally going to rain across Texas and Oklahoma this week, and it may be far too much, too fast. The NOAA Weather Prediction Center 7-day rain forecast, running from 8 AM ET Monday, September 28 through 8 AM ET Monday, October 5, shows a staggering 7.0 inches of rain for Ardmore, Oklahoma, 5.9 inches for San Antonio and 5.5 inches for Dallas. That rain is set to fall on ground that has been bone dry for months, with Dallas recording just 0.01 inch of rain since August 1, raising a serious threat of flash flooding across the southern Plains.
Ardmore at the Center of the Heaviest Rain
The bullseye of this forecast sits over south-central Oklahoma, where Ardmore is projected to receive around 7 inches of rain in just one week. That is roughly two months’ worth of rain for this area packed into a matter of days.
Communities around Ardmore, including Lake Murray, Marietta, Healdton and the Arbuckle Mountains region, are in the heart of the danger zone. Creeks and small rivers feeding the Washita River and Red River can rise rapidly when this much rain falls in a short time, and steep terrain in the Arbuckles can send runoff racing downhill.
Dry Ground Will Not Soak It Up
After weeks of 90s and 100s and almost no rain, the soil across Texas and Oklahoma has baked hard. Instead of acting like a sponge, drought-hardened ground often behaves more like pavement during heavy rain.
That means a large share of this rain could run straight off into streets, ditches, creeks and low-water crossings. The first heavy bursts could be the most dangerous, as dry creek beds suddenly fill with fast-moving water.
San Antonio and the Hill Country Face Nearly 6 Inches
San Antonio is forecast to pick up around 5.9 inches, placing Bexar County and the surrounding Texas Hill Country in serious danger. The Hill Country is known as one of the most flash-flood-prone regions in the United States, where rocky slopes and narrow river valleys funnel water quickly.
Rivers and creeks such as the Guadalupe, Medina, Blanco and San Antonio River can rise dangerously fast. Low-water crossings across the region are especially deadly, since drivers often underestimate how deep and fast the water is.
Dallas-Fort Worth Braces for 5.5 Inches
Dallas is forecast for about 5.5 inches of rain, an enormous total for a city that has gone nearly two months with almost nothing. In the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, huge areas of concrete and pavement mean rain rushes into storm drains quickly.
Heavy bursts could flood underpasses, service roads and low-lying neighborhoods, with trouble spots along Interstate 35E, Interstate 30, Interstate 635 and Interstate 45. Creeks such as White Rock Creek and the Trinity River tributaries can rise fast during intense rain.
Houston and Southeast Texas Also in the Rain Zone
Houston is forecast to receive around 3.5 inches, enough to cause street flooding in a city where many roads are designed to hold water during heavy rain. Bayous can rise quickly, and flooded freeway underpasses are a common danger.
Rain Spreads Across the Plains and South
Beyond Texas and Oklahoma, the forecast shows heavy rain spreading across a huge part of the country:
Memphis: 3.3 inches
Omaha: 3.1 inches
Nashville: 3.0 inches
New Orleans: 2.9 inches
Albuquerque: 2.7 inches
Kansas City: 2.5 inches
St. Louis: 2.0 inches
In the western part of the region, Amarillo is forecast for 1.7 inches, El Paso for 1.3 inches and Denver for 1.1 inches. Farther north, Minneapolis sits near 1.9 inches and Chicago near 1.1 inches.
Why 7 Inches in a Week Is Not Normal
For most of Oklahoma and north Texas, a typical month brings about 3 to 4 inches of rain in early fall. Seeing 5 to 7 inches in one week is well outside normal and can overwhelm drainage systems, especially when the ground cannot absorb water.
Tropical moisture tied to the remnants of Hurricane Polo, combined with a slow-moving weather system, is helping fuel this extreme rainfall setup.
Watch for Flash Flood Watches and Warnings
As the heaviest rain approaches, the National Weather Service may issue Flash Flood Watches and Warnings across Texas and Oklahoma. Residents should have multiple ways to receive alerts, including weather radio and phone notifications.
How to Stay Safe
Never drive into flooded roads or low-water crossings. Just 12 inches of moving water can carry away most cars. Turn around, don’t drown.
Clear storm drains and gutters now, move valuables out of basements and low areas, and avoid camping or parking near creeks and rivers during heavy rain.
