In Panama City, Florida, heavy rain is forecast for this weekend. The HRRR model shows that between 8 PM on Friday, October 2 and 8 PM on Sunday, October 4, there will be 6 to 12 inches of rain stretching from Panama City to Pensacola. Panama City may receive about 9.5 inches and East Pensacola Heights approximately 8.8 inches. It is advised that repeated tropical downpours may lead to flash flooding, since the rainfall amounts will be greater than expected and the water levels will rise rapidly.
Panama City Tops the Forecast
Panama City is due to receive approximately 9.5 inches of rain in two days and nearby areas including Panama City Beach, Lynn Haven, Callaway, Mexico Beach, and Port St. Joe will also experience heavy rain.
Low-lying neighborhoods, coastal roads, and areas near St. Andrew Bay in Bay County could flood, especially if storm drains cannot handle the water.
Pensacola Area Near 9 Inches
To the west, East Pensacola Heights is expected to get about 8.8 inches of rain, which puts the Pensacola area at high risk for flooding. Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Milton, and Pace could also receive several inches.
Pensacola has experienced severe flash flooding in the past when heavy rain lingers over the area. Forecasters are monitoring this situation closely.
Destin and Fort Walton Beach in the Middle
Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, and Santa Rosa Beach are located between Pensacola and Panama City, right in the path of the heaviest rain. Tourist spots along Scenic Highway 30A may have flooded roads and parking lots.
If you are visiting the beach this weekend, watch for local alerts and do not drive through flooded streets.
Why Flooding Could Overperform
Forecasters are concerned that this event could turn out worse than expecForecasters worry this event could be worse than expected. Tropical downpours can bring very heavy rain, sometimes 2 to 4 inches in an hour. If storms keep hitting the same places, rain totals can quickly go beyond what models predict.break in the rain, only for another round to arrive and push water levels even higher.
Tallahassee and North Florida See Less
Rain amounts drop off quickly east of the Panhandle in this forecast. Tallahassee is expected to get about 1.4 inches, Jacksonville about 1.5 inches, and Gainesville around 1 inch. Mobile, Alabama may see about 2.8 inches.
Central and South Florida Mostly Light
Central Florida will see much lighter rain, with Tampa getting about 0.9 inch and Orlando only about 0.1 inch. Sarasota and Cape Coral are expected to get between 0.1 and 0.2 inch.
On the Atlantic coast, a small area of heavier rain could bring about 4.2 inches to Port St. Lucie. West Palm Beach may get around 1.9 inches, and Palm Bay about 0.3 inch.
Part of a Big Florida Rain Week
This weekend’s heavy raThe heavy rain this weekend is part of a larger weather pattern that could bring about 4.6 trillion gallons of rain to Florida over the next week. This rain will help reduce drought in 52 percent of the state, but forecasters warn that getting so much at once, especially in the Panhandle, can be dangerous.Radar
Looking ahead, models sLooking ahead, weather models suggest a large tropical low could move in from the south around October 10 and 11, bringing more rain to the Gulf Coast.er drive through flooded roads. Just 12 inches of moving water can carry away most vehicles. Turn around, don’t drown.
Stay away from low-lying areas, keep emergency alerts on overnight, and move to higher ground if water starts rising near your home.
