Birmingham in Alabama will have a split-screen weekend. On Saturday, October 3, most of the state was largely free from rain, the temperatures being well above average and Birmingham itself expected to hit about 88 degrees. However, rain is likely to become much more widespread on Sunday, and the total rainfall for the weekend could vary from about half an inch in the Tennessee Valley to 3 to 4 inches near the coast, covering Mobile. Since the week ahead is likely to be mostly dry and pleasant, global models indicate that a wide tropical low may cause rain to return to the state around October 10 and 11.
Saturday: Mostly Dry, Hot and Scattered Storms Later
Early on Saturday morning the radar indicated that most of Alabama was without rain, there being only a few isolated showers near the coast and in the northwest part of the state.
Scattered showers and a few storms are likely during the mid to late afternoon, with the greatest amount occurring in the southern part of the state and in the area north of the Tennessee state line. Central Alabama, including the Birmingham region, will generally remain dry with only isolated showers.
Temperatures Near 90 Again
Saturday temperatures will still be above average, and in places where the sun comes out, some areas could reach 90 degrees again this afternoon. The high temperature in Birmingham will be around 88 degrees, which is more characteristic of late summer than early October.
Sunday: Widespread Rain Moves In
On Sunday rain is likely to affect a much wider area of Alabama. Thunder may occur, but the forecasters state that there is no danger from severe storms.
On Sunday the temperature in Birmingham is expected to fall to around 77 degrees, with a low of nearly 69, due to the presence of clouds and rain.
Weekend Rain Totals Across Alabama
Rainfall will vary a lot from north to south:
Tennessee Valley, including Huntsville, Decatur and Florence: around half an inch
Birmingham and central Alabama: about 1 inch
Montgomery and the southern half: about 2 to 3 inches
Mobile and the Gulf Coast: about 3 to 4 inches, locally more
The model guidance available on Thursday, October 8 showed some of the highest amounts close to Mobile Bay and the coast, with totals exceeding 4 to 5 inches in certain areas. Nearly 4 inches of rain were possible in southeast Alabama near Dothan.
Georgia and the Florida Panhandle Even Wetter
To the east, both Georgia and the Florida Panhandle appear even more wet. In south and central Georgia rainfall amounts of 3 to 4 inches are usual, with 4 to 5 inches falling close to the Savannah coast. The area around Columbus, Georgia receives nearly 2.7 inches, while the Atlanta area gets about 1.5 to 2 inches.
Monday: A Few Lingering Showers
There may still be some showers on Monday in the southern part of Alabama, and Birmingham’s high temperature is expected to be about 82 degrees with the low hovering around 65.
Rest of Next Week: Dry and Pleasant
From Tuesday on, the rest of the week is expected to be free from rain, with temperatures reaching the 80s during the day and dropping to the 50s at night. The forecast for Birmingham is:
Tuesday: high 81, low 59
Wednesday: high 81, low 56
Thursday: high 83, low 55
Friday: high 84, low 56
The mornings that were cooler during the 1950s will finally have a more typical autumnal atmosphere following the record-hot September that took place in much of the South.
Tropical Low Could Bring Rain October 10 and 11
In the coming days, global models indicate that rain might occur the weekend of October 10 and 11 as a broad tropical low moves in from the south. This is in agreement with the long-range forecasts which show a possible chance of tropical development in the Gulf between October 10 and 13.
We haven’t yet reached a point where the details are known, but people living on the Gulf Coast of Alabama should watch the forecasts.
How to Stay Safe
On Sundays, when it rains more heavily, be on the lookout for water collecting on the roads, particularly in coastal areas. It is never advisable to drive through roads that have flooded; instead, turn around and don’t risk drowning.
