Repeated Rounds of Heavy Rain Raise Flash Flood Risk Across Southeast

In Savannah, Georgia, a significant rainfall event is still expected along the Gulf Coast and in the Southeast area through early next week, with the most intense rain currently concentrated on coastal Georgia and north Florida. The most recent forecast, covering Saturday, October 3 through Tuesday, October 6, predicts that both Savannah and Jacksonville will each receive about 3.70 inches, Tallahassee approximately 3.40 inches and Mobile around 4.04 inches, while some places in southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, Georgia and northern Florida will see 3 to 4 inches or so. Since there is a possibility of several rounds of heavy rain, localized flash flooding may become an issue in the areas that receive the highest amounts.

Savannah is expected to receive approximately 3.70 inches of rain by Tuesday, making coastal Georgia one of the wettest areas in the region. Nearby towns including Tybee Island, Pooler, Richmond Hill, Hinesville and Brunswick may see rainfalls of a similar amount.

The areas of the Lowcountry and coastal Georgia are particularly susceptible to flooding when heavy rain occurs at high tide, as the tidal water can prevent the storm drains from draining. Quick flooding can affect the low-lying streets in downtown Savannah and in the marshland areas.

On the other side of the state boundary, Jacksonville is also expected to receive around 3.70 inches, and areas such as the neighborhoods along the St. Johns River, Arlington, the Beaches, and those with poor drainage might experience street flooding during heavier downpours.

St. Augustine, Fernandina Beach, Orange Park and Middleburg are likewise in the heavy rain area.

Mobile is still one of the areas expected to receive the most rain, with a total of about 4.04 inches, even though the amounts have decreased from the earlier forecasts which had predicted more than 5 inches. Places along the coast such as Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Daphne and Fairhope may still have heavy rain at times.

Tallahassee is expected to receive approximately 3.40 inches, with a band of heavy rain extending across the Florida Panhandle and the Big Bend region. Places like Pensacola, Panama City, Apalachicola and Perry may experience several rounds of rain.

New Orleans is expected to get about 2.98 inches of rain. Flooding could happen in low-lying areas, especially if heavy rain falls quickly and overwhelms the city’s drainage pumps.

Inside the inland areas the amounts are smaller. Atlanta is expected to receive approximately 1.70 inches, Birmingham about 1.12 inches, Charlotte nearly 0.98 inch and Raleigh about 0.75 inch.

In central Florida Tampa will receive approximately 1.88 inches, while south Florida remains much drier with Miami predicted to get only 0.36 inch.

Near Corpus Christi along the Texas coast there is a separate area receiving heavier rain, with an expected amount of 1.27 inches. Inland, Houston is forecast to have about 0.57 inch and San Antonio only 0.13 inch, so central Texas will finally have a much-needed break after several days of flooding.

The main worry is that successive periods of heavy rain will pass over the same areas. If it continues to rain on ground that is already wet, then creeks, ditches and storm drains can soon overflow and this will cause flash flooding in certain areas.

Outdoor events, beach outings and football tailgates all over the Southeast may be impacted since it is going to rain throughout the weekend and into the early days of next week. It would be a good idea to have an indoor alternative plan.

Don’t drive through roads that have flooded. Water as shallow as twelve inches is enough to sweep away the majority of vehicles. If you see flooding, turn around and don’t risk drowning. Make sure you know the times when the tide is at its highest along the coast, clear out any blocked storm drains and keep the emergency alerts on.