SEATTLE, WASHINGTON — A new Seasonal Drought Outlook, issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and covering September 17 through December 31, 2026, calls for new drought development across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies, even as much of the rest of the country, including the Southwest, Central Rockies, most of the Plains, most of the Midwest and the East, is expected to see conditions improve. If you live anywhere from Seattle to Denver to Atlanta, this outlook maps out exactly which direction your local drought situation is headed over the next three months.
Seattle, Portland and Much of the Pacific Northwest Set for New Drought Development
If you’re in Seattle, Portland, Spokane or Boise, the outlook points toward drought developing across your region between now and the end of the year. The map shows a broad brown-shaded zone, indicating drought expected to persist, sweeping across nearly all of Washington, Oregon and Idaho, with a pocket of yellow shading, marking areas where drought is expected to newly develop, concentrated over central Idaho and western Montana. Residents across this stretch of the country should expect drier-than-normal conditions to continue building through the fall and into winter rather than easing.
Montana and the Northern Rockies Also Trending Toward Drier Conditions
Alongside the Pacific Northwest, communities across Montana, including Missoula, Billings and Kalispell, fall within the same zone flagged for drought persistence and new development. The Northern Rockies more broadly, stretching into parts of northern Wyoming, share in this same outlook. If you’re in this region and rely on snowpack or reservoir levels heading into winter, this outlook is worth watching closely, since it points toward continued dryness rather than the kind of relief other parts of the country are expected to see.
Southwest Communities From Phoenix to Albuquerque Should See Improvement
In a more encouraging sign, the Southwest, including Phoenix, Tucson, Albuquerque and Las Vegas, is expected to see improving drought conditions over the next three months. Much of Arizona, New Mexico and southern Nevada is shaded in the map’s tan improvement color, with scattered patches of olive green indicating drought actually ending entirely in some spots. If you’re in this region, this outlook builds on recent wetter patterns and suggests conditions should keep trending in a positive direction through the end of the year.
Denver and the Central Rockies Also Trend Toward Relief
Just north of the Southwest’s improving zone, the Central Rockies, including Denver, Colorado Springs and the surrounding Colorado high country, are also expected to see improvement. This region sits at the boundary between the drying Northern Rockies to the north and the improving Southwest to the south, making it one of the clearer dividing lines on this outlook. Residents around Denver and central Colorado should generally expect drought conditions to ease rather than worsen through December.
Plains Communities See Broad Improvement, With One Exception Up North
Across the Plains, from Kansas City and Wichita through Oklahoma City and into the Texas Panhandle, the outlook calls for improvement almost everywhere, with the notable exception of part of the Northern Plains. If you’re in Bismarck or elsewhere in North Dakota or northern South Dakota, keep in mind your area falls into that exception, meaning drought conditions there are expected to hold on or worsen even as the broader Plains region to your south trends toward relief.
Chicago, Detroit and Most of the Midwest Trend Toward Relief, Except the Upper Midwest
The Midwest follows a similar pattern to the Plains. Communities across Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Michigan, including Chicago and Detroit, are expected to see improving conditions, with much of the region showing no drought at all on the current map. The exception sits farther north, across part of the Upper Midwest, including portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin, where drought is expected to hang on rather than fully clear out over the coming months.
East Coast Communities From Atlanta to New York Expected to See Continued Improvement
Across the East, stretching from Atlanta and the Southeast up through the Mid-Atlantic and into New York and New England, the outlook calls for continued improvement, with most of this region already showing no drought on today’s map. If you live along the East Coast, this outlook suggests the region should remain largely drought-free through the end of the year, continuing a trend that has already left much of the East in good shape heading into fall.
What This Three-Month Outlook Means for Your Region
Taken together, this outlook draws a clear east-west and north-south divide across the country. If you’re in the Pacific Northwest, Montana or the Northern Rockies, expect drought to persist or newly develop through December 31. If you’re almost anywhere else, including the Southwest, Central Rockies, most of the Plains, most of the Midwest and the entire East, expect conditions to keep trending in a better direction, with only isolated pockets in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest bucking that broader improving trend. Forecasters note this outlook will continue to be updated at drought.gov/forecast as conditions evolve heading into winter.
