KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI — The NOAA Storm Prediction Center issued a Day 2 Categorical Outlook at 12:48 a.m. CDT calling for a Marginal Risk of severe weather Friday into Friday night, September 18 into 19, across parts of the northern Intermountain West, the central Great Plains into southern portions of the middle Missouri Valley, and the Piedmont of the Carolinas into Georgia. The outlook, issued by forecaster Kerr and valid 1200Z Friday through 1200Z Saturday, outlines four separate pockets across the country where isolated severe storms will be possible.
Storm Prediction Center Outlines Four Separate Marginal Risk Zones for Friday
Rather than a single connected severe weather corridor, tomorrow’s SPC Day 2 Outlook identifies four distinct, disconnected areas of concern scattered across the country, each wrapped in a broader thunderstorm zone. If you live near any one of these pockets, from the northern Intermountain West through the central Plains and into the Carolina Piedmont, this is a day to keep half an eye on the forecast even though the overall risk level stays low nationwide.
Northern Intermountain West Zone Covers Idaho and Western Montana
The westernmost Marginal Risk pocket forms an elongated north-south band stretching across central and eastern Idaho and into western Montana. Communities throughout this stretch of the northern Intermountain West should expect isolated storms tomorrow with the potential to turn briefly strong, tied to the same active weather pattern that’s been working across the Rockies in recent days.
Central Great Plains Zone Targets Nebraska and Kansas
A second Marginal Risk pocket sits over the central Great Plains, roughly centered over southwestern Nebraska and extending toward northwestern Kansas. If you’re in this part of the Plains, tomorrow’s setup calls for the potential of isolated strong to severe storms developing within the broader thunderstorm activity expected to spread across the region.
Southern Middle Missouri Valley Zone Covers Northern Missouri
A third, smaller pocket appears over the southern portion of the middle Missouri Valley, roughly covering north-central Missouri. Residents in this zone, positioned between the larger central Plains activity to the west and the broader thunderstorm coverage extending east, should watch for the same isolated severe storm potential tomorrow into Friday night.
Piedmont of the Carolinas Into Georgia Marks the Easternmost Risk Zone
The fourth and easternmost Marginal Risk pocket stretches across the Piedmont region of North Carolina and South Carolina, extending south into northern Georgia. Communities across this corridor, which includes the higher-terrain transition zone between the coastal plain and the Appalachian foothills, should expect isolated strong to severe storms possible Friday into Friday night as this eastern pocket of energy moves through.
Broad Thunderstorm Zone Connects All Four Risk Pockets Across the Country
Surrounding all four Marginal Risk pockets, a much larger light green thunderstorm zone stretches across a huge swath of the country, running from the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies through the Plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley and down through the Southeast into Florida. Communities throughout this broader zone, even outside the four specific Marginal Risk pockets, should expect general thunderstorm activity to be possible Friday into Friday night, even if the severe weather potential itself stays confined to the four highlighted areas.
How the SPC’s Five-Tier Risk Scale Applies to Tomorrow’s Outlook
Tomorrow’s outlook uses the Storm Prediction Center’s standard five-category scale, running from Marginal and Slight up through Enhanced, Moderate and, at the top, High. All four zones identified for Friday are capped at Level 1, Marginal Risk, the lowest tier on the scale, meaning forecasters expect only isolated severe storms rather than widespread coverage anywhere in the country tomorrow.
What Residents in Each Zone Should Expect Friday Into Friday Night
Taken together, tomorrow’s setup spans an enormous stretch of the country without producing a single, connected severe weather threat anywhere. If you’re in Idaho or western Montana, central Nebraska or northwestern Kansas, north-central Missouri, or the Piedmont of the Carolinas and northern Georgia, keep an eye on Friday’s forecast for the possibility of an isolated strong to severe storm developing near you. Everyone else within the broader thunderstorm zone, stretching from the Pacific Northwest to Florida, should simply expect general thunderstorm chances without the added severe weather concern carried by the four specifically outlined pockets.
