CHICAGO, Illinois — After several rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms battering the region this week, welcome relief is on the way. The pattern is expected to settle down mid next week with below-normal precipitation favored from the Midwest and Great Lakes southward into the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys from Wednesday, September 23 through Sunday, September 28, 2026. For communities that have been dealing with flooding, saturated fields and soggy weekends, next week brings a genuine drying window before the next weather system arrives. However, the Plains and parts of the Northeast will run well above normal rainfall during this same period.
City-by-City Rainfall Percentage of Normal September 23 Through September 28
Here are the exact mean QPF percentage of normal values for every city shown on the forecast map through 8:00 PM EDT Sunday, September 28, 2026:
Driest cities — well below normal rainfall:
- Memphis, Tennessee is forecast at just 20 percent of normal rainfall through September 28, the joint driest reading on the map alongside Jackson and New Orleans.
- Jackson, Mississippi is forecast at 15 percent of normal rainfall through September 28, 2026 — the single driest reading on the entire map.
- New Orleans, Louisiana is forecast at 25 percent of normal rainfall through September 28.
- Shreveport, Louisiana is forecast at 25 percent of normal through September 28, 2026.
- St. Louis, Missouri is forecast at 25 percent of normal rainfall through September 28.
- Chicago, Illinois is forecast at 25 percent of normal rainfall through September 28, 2026 — a dramatic turnaround from the flooding event hitting the city this weekend.
- Montgomery, Alabama is forecast at 20 percent of normal through September 28.
- Nashville, Tennessee is forecast at 30 percent of normal rainfall through September 28, 2026.
- Atlanta, Georgia is within the below-normal zone on the forecast map through September 28.
- Detroit, Michigan falls within the below-normal rainfall zone through September 28, 2026.
- Indianapolis, Indiana and Cincinnati, Ohio are forecast within the below-normal zone through September 28.
- Cleveland, Ohio falls within the drier than normal footprint through September 28, 2026.
- Knoxville, Tennessee is forecast at 50 percent of normal through September 28.
- Charleston, West Virginia is forecast at 55 percent of normal through September 28, 2026.
- Jacksonville, Florida is forecast at 105 percent of normal — right at normal — through September 28.
- Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania is forecast at 75 percent of normal through September 28, 2026.
- Washington DC is forecast at 85 percent of normal through September 28.
- Raleigh, North Carolina is forecast at 70 percent of normal through September 28, 2026.
- Wilmington, North Carolina is forecast at 60 percent of normal through September 28.
- Columbia, South Carolina is forecast at 45 percent of normal through September 28, 2026.
- Savannah, Georgia is forecast at 65 percent of normal through September 28.
- Norfolk, Virginia is forecast at 150 percent of normal through September 28, 2026 — one of the wetter spots on the East Coast during this period.
- Philadelphia, Pennsylvania falls within the transitional zone on the forecast map through September 28.
- New York area shows readings near normal on the forecast map through September 28, 2026.
- Syracuse, New York is forecast at 65 percent of normal through September 28.
- Buffalo, New York is forecast at 55 percent of normal through September 28, 2026.
Above normal rainfall — Plains and far Northeast:
- Bismarck, North Dakota is forecast at 380 percent of normal rainfall through September 28, 2026 — the joint highest reading on the entire map alongside Pierre.
- Pierre, South Dakota is also forecast at 380 percent of normal through September 28.
- Minot, North Dakota is forecast at 245 percent of normal through September 28, 2026.
- Sioux Falls, South Dakota is forecast at 230 percent of normal through September 28.
- Fargo, North Dakota is forecast at 150 percent of normal through September 28, 2026.
- Omaha, Nebraska is forecast at 205 percent of normal through September 28.
- Topeka, Kansas is forecast at 150 percent of normal through September 28, 2026.
- Oklahoma City, Oklahoma is forecast at 120 percent of normal through September 28.
- Minneapolis, Minnesota is forecast at 95 percent of normal — near normal — through September 28, 2026.
- Milwaukee, Wisconsin falls near the boundary zone on the forecast map through September 28.
- Boston, Massachusetts is forecast at 245 percent of normal through September 28, 2026 — the wettest major Northeast city on the map during this period.
- Augusta, Maine is forecast at 130 percent of normal through September 28.
- Burlington, Vermont is forecast at 70 percent of normal through September 28, 2026.
- Charlotte, North Carolina is forecast at 75 percent of normal through September 28.
- Halifax area is forecast at 190 percent of normal on the northeastern edge of the forecast map through September 28, 2026.
- Dallas, Texas is forecast at 65 percent of normal through September 28.
- Austin, Texas and Houston, Texas are both forecast at 40 percent and 25 percent of normal respectively through September 28, 2026.
What Drier Conditions Mean for Flood-Weary Communities
For residents in Chicago, St. Louis, Memphis, Nashville and communities across the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys that have been dealing with repeated rounds of heavy rain this week, the September 23 through September 28 drying window is genuinely welcome news. Below-normal precipitation means saturated soils can begin draining, rivers can recede from elevated levels and farmers in the Midwest and Tennessee Valley can begin assessing field conditions for harvest operations that have been repeatedly disrupted by wet weather. The 25 percent of normal forecast for Chicago through September 28 represents a dramatic shift from the flooding conditions hitting the city this weekend.
The Exception: Plains States See Well Above Normal Rainfall Next Week
While the Midwest and South dry out, residents in North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas should prepare for the opposite pattern. Bismarck and Pierre at 380 percent of normal and Sioux Falls at 230 percent of normal through September 28 suggest a very active rainfall pattern across the Plains next week, consistent with the storm system tracking through the region during this same period.
