EASTERN COLORADO — Forecasters issued Mesoscale Discussion #2321 overnight, warning that a cluster of dangerous storms across eastern Colorado was capable of producing hail up to 3.5 inches in diameter and wind gusts as high as 80 mph, with the threat valid until 12:15 AM MDT. The discussion was tied to an active Severe Thunderstorm Watch #674, meaning conditions across the area remained primed for additional dangerous storms through the overnight hours.
What the Mesoscale Discussion Warned
The graphic, issued at 11:54 PM CDT, flagged a specific area of eastern Colorado where a Severe Hail and Wind Threat was expected to continue. Forecasters listed the most probable peak intensity for the ongoing storms in three categories.
- Hail: up to 2.00 to 3.50 inches in diameter, ranging from golf ball to baseball size.
- Wind: gusts of 65 to 80 mph, strong enough to cause widespread damage on their own.
- Tornado: wind speeds up to 90 mph possible with any tornado that develops out of these storms.
Understanding What a Mesoscale Discussion Actually Is
A Mesoscale Discussion is not the same as a warning. It is a short-term outlook meant to give forecasters, emergency managers and the public a heads-up that dangerous weather is either developing or already underway in a specific area, often ahead of individual warnings being issued for specific towns. In this case, the discussion explained that the severe hail and wind threat tied to Severe Thunderstorm Watch #674 was continuing, not just beginning, meaning storms had already been producing hazardous conditions before this update went out.
Radar Showed an Intense Cluster of Storms
The radar image accompanying the discussion showed a large, well-defined cluster of storms sitting directly over the highlighted threat area, with reflectivity values on the color scale climbing toward the most intense end of the chart, a sign of very heavy rain and large hail within the core of the storms. The graphic also noted that the latest surface weather observations across the region were factored into the outlook, along with atmospheric energy and wind shear data used to judge how much longer the storms could keep producing severe weather.
Why Three Different Hazards Were All in Play
Unlike a typical severe thunderstorm warning that highlights one or two threats, this outlook flagged hail, wind and tornado potential all at once. That combination reflects an atmosphere unstable enough to support very large hail while also carrying strong wind shear, the kind of setup that can allow storms to rotate and produce tornadoes in addition to damaging straight-line winds. The fact that all three hazards were listed together is a sign forecasters saw this storm cluster as capable of multiple types of damage rather than just one.
What These Numbers Mean on the Ground
Hail in the 2.00 to 3.50 inch range is large enough to shatter windshields, dent vehicle roofs and hoods, and cause serious damage to roofing material almost instantly on impact. Wind gusts of 65 to 80 mph fall in the same range as a weak hurricane, capable of snapping large tree limbs, toppling weaker trees entirely and causing structural damage to outbuildings, fences and unanchored structures. A tornado producing winds up to 90 mph would fall in the EF1 range, strong enough to peel roofing, push over mobile homes and snap or uproot trees.
The Area This Discussion Covered
The threat area outlined on the map sat mostly within eastern Colorado, based on the inset overview map included with the graphic, with the discussion also referencing the Wichita, Kansas forecast office, suggesting parts of nearby Kansas may have been included in the broader watch area as well.
What Residents Should Do Overnight
- Keep a phone charged and nearby with weather alerts turned on, since a Mesoscale Discussion like this often leads to new warnings for specific towns as storms continue.
- Move vehicles into a garage or covered area where possible, given the 3.5 inch hail potential.
- Stay away from windows and move to an interior room if a warning is issued for your specific location overnight.
- Avoid unnecessary travel through the highlighted threat area until the 12:15 AM MDT valid time passes and conditions are reassessed.
- Do not assume the threat has ended once this discussion expires, since Severe Thunderstorm Watch #674 may remain active and cover a longer window than this single update.
