Flash Flood Threat Targets Texas on October 1 as Heavy Rain Persists From Oklahoma to the Midwest

A dangerous rainy day is currently taking place all over Texas. The Weather Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk (which is level 3 out of 4) for excessive rain for parts of the Southern Plains on Thursday, October 1. The most serious situation is in south-central Texas, covering the Hill Country and the area along Interstate 35 from Dallas–Fort Worth to Austin and San Antonio. It has been forecasted that some locations may get between 2 and 4 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts.

The Moderate Risk reaches from South Texas into southeastern Oklahoma, while a more extensive Slight Risk includes parts of Texas, Oklahoma and areas further north into Wisconsin and northeast Indiana, where isolated flash flooding is possible.

The Hill Country is particularly susceptible to rapid runoff, with rainfalls possibly amounting to 1 to 2 inches per hour and there being the possibility of short, severe bursts that would be even higher. Such heavy rains could lead to water levels rising swiftly in creeks and in low-lying areas, and flooding might also impact the roads and urban areas situated along the I-35 corridor.

In its early Thursday update, the Weather Prediction Center stated that flash flooding was likely to affect the middle Rio Grande Valley and north-central Texas. It added that some of the storms might bring 2 to 3 inches of rain hourly, and that in some cases the total rainfall could exceed 5 inches.

The flood danger reaches north and east areas, due to the presence of abnormally moist air and a slowly moving front which could lead to further heavy rainfall. The outlook provided by the WPC covers a wide Slight Risk area extending from Texas through to Wisconsin and into northeast Indiana, indicating that flash flooding might also occur beyond the main high-risk area.

There will be thunderstorms in parts of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, but the Storm Prediction Center has stated that the general chance of severe weather on Thursday is low. Although this is the case, some of the storms may cause gusty winds.

The possibility of flooding could extend into Friday in certain areas of southern and east-central Texas. The WPC states that another 2 to 4 inches may fall between Laredo and McAllen and in the surrounding areas, with further heavy rain being possible east of I-35 in east-central Texas.

It is never advisable to drive through floodwater since the water can mask damage to the road and flowing water has the ability to sweep away vehicles. You should heed any local warnings, avoid crossing at low water levels, and go to higher ground if the water starts to rise nearby.