The heart of the US is in for a very unsettled weather swing with heavy rain and thunderstorms set to bring flash flooding from Texas through Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri and into the Midwest before a very strong cold front arrives later in the week and temperatures plummet. The NWS Weather Prediction Centre has a slight risk of excessive rainfall over the Southern High Plains, the Central Plains and the Lower Missouri Valley.
A Storm System Takes Aim
A sluggish storm system is drawing in moist Gulf air across the Plains and Midwest creating a very dangerous situation with warm, humid air and unsettled conditions. The moisture from Hurricane Simon is interacting with a stalled front to produce a series of showers and thunderstorms.
The end result could be days of incessant rain rather than a single storm. Some areas could see rainfall rates well over 2 inches an hour with storm totals potentially in excess of 6 inches in a few places by Friday morning.
Texas to Missouri: The Flood Corridor
The heaviest rain is going to be along a corridor from northwestern TX through central OK into MO. A broad area from western TX into central IL is expected to see 2-4 inches, with 4-8 inches possible in the main rain band.
That volume of water can turn a normal road into a river. The low lying intersections, underpasses, rural drainage ditches and creeks are all at risk. Flash flooding is possible in areas that don’t even get the highest rainfall totals as saturated ground and the effect of several storms in succession can cause runoff to go straight into the streets and streams.
Severe Thunderstorms Loom
The threat isn’t just from flooding. Thunderstorms will be strong across Texas into Illinois with the potential for damaging winds of 60-70 mph, large hail and isolated tornadoes in parts of the central and southern Plains.
Storms can start off as scattered cells in the afternoon and then consolidate into larger clusters by the evening and overnight. That pattern is particularly hazardous as the night time storms are much harder to see and can catch people asleep with damaging winds and flash flooding developing.
The Cold Front Arrives
After the rain and storms the air will turn completely. A surge of cold Canadian air is due to push a front southwards by the end of the week, bringing an end to the exceptionally warm period that has been experienced over much of the central US.
Across Kans, Nebraska and Iowa highs will be dropping from the 80s and 90s early in the week down into the 60s. Frost and freeze concerns are expected to spread across the northern and central Plains late this week into early next week as the cold high pressure settles in behind the front.
Who Faces the Greatest Risk
| Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri | Heavy rain, flash flooding, severe storms | |
| Western Texas to central Illinois | Widespread 2–4 inch rainfall; locally 4–8 inches | |
| Central and southern Plains | Hail, damaging winds, isolated tornadoes | |
| Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa | Sharp temperature drop | |
| Northern and central Plains | Frost and freeze potential |
Weekend into early next week https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/index.php
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What Residents Should Do
- Never drive through flooded roads. Just 12 inches of moving water can take many vehicles.
- Get the cars out of the low lying areas before the heavy rain starts.
- Secure patio furniture, trampolines, bins and all other loose items before any gusty storms.
- Charge your phones and your backup batteries in the event of a storm causing a power cut.
- Have a means of receiving weather alerts when you’re asleep (particularly if you live in a flood or tornado prone area).
- Farmers and gardeners should be on the look out for a possible early frost or freeze and be prepared to protect their sensitive crops, plants and outdoor plumbing.
A Dramatic Shift for the Heartland
Middle America is in for a classic October collision: tropical moisture coming in from the south, a sluggish storm system sitting overhead and cold air just waiting to roll in from Canada. The next few days could see some real thunder, some very flooded roads and some quite violent winds before a sharp, almost wintry cold arrives.
