MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA — Our first freeze of the season is only a matter of time away, according to an Average First Freeze map from Max Velocity, based on gridMET daily minimum temperature data averaged over the 1991-2020 normal period. Historical averages indicate the highest elevations out West and parts of the northern Plains typically hit 32 degrees by the end of this month or early October, with the freezing temperatures then dropping quickly across the central Plains and Midwest and finally arriving in the Deep South and along the East Coast by November. If you live anywhere in the country, this map lets you pin down roughly when your own first freeze historically shows up.
Billings, Fargo and Denver Lead the Nation Into Freezing Territory
If you’re in Billings, Montana, your area typically sees its first freeze earliest of any major city on the map, with an average date of September 28, just days away as this month winds down. Fargo, North Dakota, and Denver, Colorado, both follow closely behind with an average first freeze of October 3, meaning residents across the northern Plains and Colorado Front Range should already be thinking about covering sensitive plants and preparing outdoor pipes for that first cold snap.
Salt Lake City and the Interior West Follow Close Behind
Just behind the earliest freezers, Salt Lake City, Utah, carries an average first freeze date of October 13, reflecting how quickly cold air settles into the higher-elevation valleys of the Interior West once autumn takes hold. If you’re in Salt Lake City or similar elevated communities across the Rockies and Great Basin, mid-October is historically your window, giving you a few more weeks than places like Billings but still well ahead of much of the rest of the country.
Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago Bring Freezing Air Into the Heartland
Throughout October, freezing temperatures drop quickly across the central Plains and Midwest, arriving in cities like Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago. Minneapolis carries an average first freeze date of October 10, while Kansas City, Missouri, follows later in the month at October 22, and Chicago rounds out the trio near the very end of October at October 28. If you’re anywhere across this stretch of the Midwest, this is your realistic window for that first frosty morning, so it’s worth having your fall garden and outdoor faucets sorted out before late October arrives.
Albuquerque and the Southwest See Their Own Mid-October Freeze
Farther southwest, Albuquerque, New Mexico, sits right in the same general timeframe as the Midwest, with an average first freeze of October 20. That timing reflects the high desert elevation around Albuquerque, which cools off considerably faster than lower-elevation desert cities farther south and west, putting it on a similar autumn schedule to communities like Kansas City despite the very different climate.
Boston, Washington and Nashville Bring the Chill Into Late October and Early November
By late October into early November, the freezing line pushes into the Northeast and parts of the Southeast. Boston, Massachusetts, carries an average first freeze of October 26, with Nashville, Tennessee, close behind at October 27. Washington, D.C., follows shortly after at November 2, while Atlanta, Georgia, doesn’t typically see its first freeze until November 5. If you’re in any of these cities, this stretch from late October through the first week of November is historically when you should expect that first hard frost warning.
New York City and Seattle Wait Until Mid to Late November
Some of the country’s largest cities hold out considerably longer than the interior. New York City carries an average first freeze date of November 15, while Seattle, Washington, on the opposite coast, waits even longer at November 17. Both cities benefit from the moderating influence of large bodies of water nearby, Puget Sound for Seattle and the Atlantic and surrounding harbor waters for New York, which keep temperatures from dropping to freezing as quickly as inland communities at similar latitudes.
Dallas and Houston Don’t See Freezing Temperatures Until Late November
By November, the chill finally pushes into the Deep South, bringing the first frost of the year to places like Dallas. Dallas, Texas, carries an average first freeze date of November 21, with Houston following close behind at November 28. If you’re in either Texas metro, you’ve got a solid two months longer than communities in the northern Plains before you need to worry about your first freeze of the season.
Phoenix and Orlando Round Out the Latest, or Rarest, Freezes in the Country
At the very bottom of the list, Phoenix, Arizona, doesn’t typically see its first freeze until December 10, among the latest average dates anywhere in the country. Orlando, Florida, goes a step further, with the map simply noting the city rarely freezes at all, reflecting the deep subtropical climate across Central Florida that keeps freezing temperatures an uncommon event most winters rather than a predictable annual occurrence.
What This Means for Your Fall Prep Timeline
Wherever you live, this map offers a useful planning tool for fall chores like draining garden hoses, covering tender plants and checking your heating system before the cold arrives. If you’re in the northern Plains or Rockies, that window is already closing fast; if you’re in the Midwest or Northeast, you’ve got several more weeks; and if you’re in the Deep South, Southwest or Florida, you can comfortably wait until November or later before your first freeze becomes a real concern.
