ALBUQUERQUE, NEW MEXICO — A break in heavy weather will not last long across parts of the Desert Southwest. The National Weather Service in Albuquerque expects thunderstorm chances to increase late Sunday night into Monday, followed by an elevated flash-flood risk through Wednesday. Its September 26 forecast favored 1 to 4 inches of precipitation across much of New Mexico from Monday through Wednesday, while forecasters in Utah also warned that deeper tropical moisture could bring heavy rain to parts of the state.
The 1-to-4-inch figure is a multi-day forecast range, not rainfall already measured and not a promise of equal amounts in every New Mexico town. It becomes particularly important where water is still draining from previous storms or where a brief intense shower can rapidly send runoff through a wash or burn scar.
A Sunday Transition Before Widespread Rain
Albuquerque forecasters described Saturday as a needed pause after earlier heavy rain. Their forecast expected the next surge of moisture to begin affecting the region Sunday, with storms developing near the Mogollon Rim and tracking into western New Mexico. Shower and thunderstorm chances were then expected to continue overnight in the northwestern half of the state as the larger system approached.
That sequence matters for anyone making plans. A relatively quiet Sunday morning in Albuquerque does not settle the forecast for Monday or Tuesday. Likewise, a late Sunday storm in western New Mexico would not mean the forecast 1 to 4 inches had already fallen statewide.
At the national level, the Weather Prediction Center expected upper-level moisture drawn from two eastern Pacific tropical cyclones to reach the Four Corners region by Monday morning. A separate disturbance moving toward California and the Southwest was forecast to help expand rain and embedded thunderstorms. Tropical moisture can feed a heavy-rain setup without a hurricane making landfall in New Mexico or Utah.
Rivers and Burn Scars Need Special Attention
The Albuquerque office said runoff from earlier storms was already working through area streams and rivers, notably the Pecos River. Additional rain could produce further rises. That is different from a claim that every river is currently above flood stage; individual river forecasts and gauges are needed for such a statement.
Recent burn scars are another concern. These areas can respond quickly to heavy rainfall, giving nearby roads or drainage channels less time to absorb runoff. The office specifically identified locally heavy rain and flash flooding near recent burn scars as hazards during the wetter period. Readers in such areas should follow local flood warnings, not rely on a broad state-average rainfall estimate.
The office also noted that storms might move quickly in the developing pattern, while repeated storms over the same location could still cause flash flooding. Whether a location gets one fast-moving shower or several in succession will strongly influence actual impacts.
Utah’s Risk Shifts Monday
The National Weather Service in Salt Lake City expected scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday across eastern Utah and southwest Wyoming. Winds across western Utah were forecast to gust generally 25 to 30 mph Sunday, with stronger, erratic outflow gusts possible near individual thunderstorms. The strongest thunderstorm gust is not a forecast for every community.
Deeper moisture was then expected Monday into Tuesday, raising the flash-flood risk in parts of southern and eastern Utah. Forecasters emphasized uncertainty in precisely where the most intense rainfall would develop. Some model solutions favored southeastern Utah, while others suggested a stronger convective threat farther southwest. Both possibilities warranted attention, but neither justified declaring a particular canyon certain to flood.
The Salt Lake City discussion suggested many central and southern Utah locations could receive roughly a half-inch to an inch of rain Monday through Tuesday in its lower-range scenario, with larger totals possible in a wetter outcome. Those are regional guidance ranges. A localized thunderstorm could produce a different amount, particularly in complex terrain.
Check the Forecast Before Entering Flood-Prone Terrain
By Wednesday, Utah forecasters expected drier air to begin cutting off lingering precipitation, while New Mexico’s unsettled period could continue before easing later in the week. These are separate state forecasts produced by different offices, not a single storm clock applying everywhere.
For residents and travelers, avoid driving through running water and reconsider plans involving washes, slot canyons or low crossings when thunderstorms are nearby. A forecast for moderate rain across a region can still contain isolated dangerous downpours. Check the latest National Weather Service alerts immediately before traveling; the forecast track, rainfall amounts and flood-risk placement could change substantially over the next two days.
