Millions of people living along the Eastern Seaboard can expect a wet winter, since climate models indicate above-average precipitation will extend from Washington, D.C., through Baltimore, Richmond, and the Carolinas; however, the air temperatures will be warmer than average and this could result in more rain than snow in many areas.
Above-Normal Precipitation Expected
The most recent seasonal forecast from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center indicates that the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast areas have the greatest likelihood of having a winter warmer than average in 2026–2027, with cities such as Washington, D.C., Baltimore, Richmond, Raleigh, and Charlotte all expected to receive precipitation amounts between 10 and 30 per cent above normal by February.
The pattern is due to the El Niño climate phenomenon currently occurring in the Pacific Ocean, a situation which generally results in increased storm activity in the southern and eastern parts of the United States. It is expected that storm systems will move more often along the East Coast, taking up moisture from the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico and then depositing it on ground that is already saturated.
Mild Air Mass Limits Snow Potential
Though the precipitation is expected to be plentiful, the temperatures might not prove favourable for those who want to see snow. The long-range forecasts indicate that a large part of the winter will have above-normal temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast regions, the cold air masses failing to move far enough south to cause substantial snowfall.
If the mild pattern continues, Washington, D.C. and Baltimore—areas which usually have a mixture of rain and snow in winter—could end up with weather events that are mostly rainy. Moreover, Richmond and all areas lying to the south are even less likely to have snow accumulating, the precipitation being mostly in the form of rain.
Michelle L’Heureux, a forecaster with the CPC, said that the El Niño pattern tends to result in a warmer and wetter winter for the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic region. “Although there might be a few cold periods, the general pattern indicates that there will be more rain than snow in most areas,” she added.
Flooding Concerns Mount
The above-normal amount of precipitation, combined with saturated soils resulting from a previously wet autumn, has led to concerns regarding the possibility of flooding, in particular in low-lying areas and in those regions near rivers and streams which are prone to overflowing. In urban areas that have outdated stormwater infrastructure, for example Washington, D.C. and Baltimore, street flooding might occur during the most intense rainfall events.
The Carolinas are especially susceptible, since they have experienced several instances of heavy rain and tropical systems in the last few years. People who live in areas prone to flooding should keep a close eye on local forecasts and be ready for the possibility of flash flooding when strong storm systems occur.
What This Means for Snowfall
The weather forecast for winter lovers is at best only mixed. Although the area is expected to experience a number of winter storms, the absence of cold air that lasts over time means that most of these systems will result in rain, sleet, or a wintry mix rather than heavy snowfall.
In western Maryland, western Virginia, and the Appalachians in North Carolina the possibility of accumulating snow is greatest since at higher elevations it will be cold enough for precipitation to remain frozen even though at lower elevations it will be in the form of rain. Ski resorts in those areas could make use of both natural snowfall and the good conditions for producing artificial snow.
Timeline and What to Expect
- In December, the precipitation is likely to be above normal, with temperatures a little bit higher than usual, and a few cold snaps could bring snow at higher elevations.
- In January, several storm systems are anticipated, making it the wettest month of winter in many regions, and temperatures will stay mild, reducing the likelihood of snow.
- In February, rainfall remains above average, although there is a slightly improved possibility of cold air reaching the area at the end of the month.
How to Prepare
- Before heavy rain falls, make sure that the gutters and drains are cleared to reduce the risk of flooding.
- Keep an eye on flood watches and warnings, particularly if you live near rivers or in low-lying areas.
- In case of power outages caused by severe storms, it is important to have an emergency supply of goods.
- It’s important to keep up with the forecasts since winter weather patterns can change rapidly.
The Bottom Line
Although a wet winter is very likely in Washington, Baltimore, Richmond, and the Carolinas, the main issue is whether it will be a snowy one or merely a rainy one. The current models indicate the rainy scenario, since mild air masses are expected to keep snowfall below normal over most areas. People should expect frequent rain periods, the possibility of flooding, and only rare chances of winter weather.
