WICHITA, KANSAS — Another day of dual Slight Risks, Level 2 of 5, for severe weather is in place across the Plains today, September 20, according to WeatherFront’s Severe Weather Outlook. A few supercells are expected across eastern Colorado, where adequate deep-layer shear and a low-level upslope regime should be in place, bringing large to very large hail and damaging winds as the main threats, along with a low-end risk for a tornado or two. Farther southeast, across Oklahoma and far north Texas, significant damaging winds are expected from convection along a southward-sagging cold front this afternoon, with large hail also possible within the strongest cores.
Eastern Colorado and Western Kansas Face Supercells This Afternoon
If you’re anywhere across eastern Colorado or western Kansas, including Denver, Colorado Springs, Pueblo and Garden City, you’re sitting inside today’s western Slight Risk zone. A shortwave will move into the region this afternoon, coupled with an upslope regime north of a surface front, and forecasters say adequate low-level moisture and deep-layer shear should foster a few supercells as the afternoon progresses.
Large to Very Large Hail Tops the Threat List West of Denver
Within this western zone, large to very large hail stands out as the primary concern alongside damaging winds. If you’re in Colorado Springs, Pueblo or the surrounding eastern Colorado plains, any supercell that manages to organize today carries the potential to drop hail large enough to cause real damage to vehicles, roofs and crops, making this a day to have a plan for getting under cover quickly if a warning is issued for your area.
A Low-End Tornado Risk Also Accompanies Today’s Colorado Supercells
Beyond hail and wind, forecasters flagged a low-end chance of a tornado or two developing within today’s Colorado supercells. While this isn’t a widespread tornado outbreak setup, any storm that becomes a well-organized, rotating supercell under today’s favorable shear profile has at least some potential to produce a brief tornado, so residents across eastern Colorado and western Kansas should keep a weather radio or alert app handy through the afternoon and evening.
Oklahoma City and Far North Texas Face Their Own Separate Slight Risk
Well to the southeast, a second, entirely separate Slight Risk zone covers Oklahoma, including Oklahoma City and Tulsa, extending into far north Texas near Wichita Falls and Amarillo. This zone is driven by a different mechanism than the Colorado supercells: a moist, unstable airmass exists ahead of a southward-sagging cold front that will push through the region this afternoon, igniting a mix of storm types along the boundary.
Significant Damaging Winds Exceeding 74 MPH Possible Across Oklahoma
The headline threat for Oklahoma and far north Texas today is significant damaging winds, with forecasters specifically flagging the potential for gusts exceeding 74 mph, the threshold for hurricane-force winds. If you’re in Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Lubbock or Wichita Falls, that’s a serious number: winds at that strength are capable of snapping large tree limbs, downing power lines and causing structural damage, making today’s setup one worth taking seriously even without a tornado threat attached.
Storms Along the Front Expected to Grow Upscale Into Clusters or Lines
Forecasters expect a mix of multicells and transient supercells to develop along the sagging cold front this afternoon before eventually growing upscale into clusters or linear segments. That evolution matters because a well-organized line of storms is often the most efficient producer of widespread damaging winds, meaning the threat across Oklahoma and far north Texas could actually increase as the day transitions into evening and the individual storms consolidate.
Large Hail Also Possible Within the Strongest Cores Farther South
While damaging winds are the headline threat across Oklahoma and far north Texas, forecasters noted that large hail remains possible within the strongest storm cores as well. If you’re anywhere along this southern zone, from Oklahoma City down through Lubbock and Abilene, don’t assume wind is the only hazard; any storm that manages to intensify briefly before merging into the broader line could still produce hail large enough to cause damage.
Broader Thunderstorm and Marginal Risk Zones Surround Both Slight Risk Areas
Surrounding both of today’s Slight Risk zones, a much larger area stretches from Nebraska and Iowa through Kansas, Missouri and down into Texas and Arkansas, carrying either a Marginal Risk for isolated severe storms or simply a chance of general thunderstorms. If you’re in Omaha, Kansas City, Topeka, Dallas or Shreveport, you’re not in either of today’s highest-confidence zones, but scattered storms remain possible as the broader system plays out across the Plains.
What Residents Across Both Risk Zones Should Do Today
If you’re in eastern Colorado or western Kansas, watch for supercells developing this afternoon capable of large hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado. If you’re in Oklahoma or far north Texas, prepare for the potential of significant, over-74-mph wind gusts as storms along the cold front grow upscale into clusters or lines through the afternoon and evening. Wherever you are across today’s dual risk zones, securing loose outdoor items and having a reliable way to receive severe weather alerts will matter most as this active Plains setup unfolds.
